The Number Nobody Talks About

If you attend any employment law conference, you will hear the statistic: "The backlog is 18 months." It has become background noise, a fact of life like the weather.

But "18 months" is a measure of wait time, not the scale of the problem. To understand the crisis, you need to look at the queue.

As of late 2025, the total outstanding caseload stands at 515,000.

  • 52,000 are single claims (the bread and butter of the system).
  • 463,000 are multiple claims (mostly legacy equal pay, but still clogging the pipes).

The most alarming metric? Growth. Single claims are arriving at a rate of 12,000 per quarter, but the system is only disposing of ~5,900. That is a net growth of +6,100 cases every three months.

The Calculus of Chaos: Little's Law

We can model this using a principle from queuing theory known as Little's Law:

L = λ × W

Where:

  • L is the number of items in the system (the Backlog: 52,000 single claims)
  • λ (Lambda) is the arrival rate (~48,000/year)
  • W is the average wait time (currently ~1.5 - 2 years)

This formula reveals the uncomfortable truth. To reduce the backlog (L), you only have two levers: reduce λ (stop cases coming in) or reduce W (process them faster).

The "ERA Shock" Scenario

Here is where the maths gets scary. The Employment Rights Act 2025 is about to grant Day One unfair dismissal rights.

If this legislative change increases claim volume by just 20% (a conservative estimate given millions more employees will gain standing):

  • New λ: ~58,000 claims/year
  • Current disposal capacity: ~24,000 claims/year (based on Q2 2025 data)
  • Net Annual Deficit: 34,000 cases

In this scenario, without a massive injection of judicial resources, the backlog for single claims doesn't just "stay bad"—it doubles in 18 months.

Interactive Model: Can we fix it?

Adjust the sliders to see how resource injections affect the backlog through to 2028.

Effect: +0% disposals/qtr
Effect: +0% pre-claim settlement
Effect: -0% claim reduction

Tactical Implications

So, what does this mean for your practice tomorrow?

1. Forum Shopping is Back

The backlog is not evenly distributed. London South is a black hole; other regions are merely slow. For claimants with mobile employers or multiple sites, pleading jurisdiction in a faster region (if arguable) is now a primary strategic goal.

2. The Settlement Calculus

For respondents, the "cost of defence" now includes the "cost of uncertainty" for 2+ years. Witness memories fade. Managers leave. The commercial value of a low-value nuisance settlement has just gone up, simply to clear the contingent liability from the books.

3. Manage Expectations

Stop telling clients "12 to 18 months." That was the 2024 reality. In 2026, unless you are in a quiet region, you should be preparing them for a 2027/28 hearing date.

The Bottom Line

The government cannot legislate the backlog away. Unless they find a way to double the disposal rate—hiring hundreds of judges, not dozens—the queue will grow. The "ERA Shock" is coming. Do the maths, and prepare your clients accordingly.